Zelensky-Trump Oval Office . . .
A communication lesson.
As I wrote about Leadership Communication, the objective is to win trust and respect. Today, there are at least two reasons the traditional method of controlling the narrative doesn’t work anymore: the public’s capricious belief in rumors and gossip which are impossible to control, and, the suspicion today’s audience has of production techniques like editing, special effects, and photo/video alteration, because they know how to do it themselves on social media!
One way to overcome these hurdles is to “go live”, to let the public see how the sausage is made, without editing or special effects. Obviously it’s risky, but those who have practiced spontaneous conversations can leverage the authenticity of “live” to their advantage.
I witnessed such a moment in 1987 at the Chautauqua Conference on US-Soviet Relations when citizens of both countries sat in the audience and listened to officials of both countries discuss arms control and take questions. I don’t know if this was a sanctioned strategy by the Reagan administration, but if so, it was very effective in revealing the cracks in the military Soviet leadership that would lead to its unexpected dissolution, just four years later, when Ukraine declared independence in 1991.
Trump uses this “live” technique a lot. While Biden, like most Presidents, only had official press conference in the press room, Trump invites the press into the Oval Office daily to see what is happening and takes questions.
Trump used the “live” strategy during his first administration to make deals with foreign leaders, like the President of China. Xi Jinping, the ultimate communication control freak, did not have much practice in this kind of transparent, spontaneous deal-making, giving Trump the advantage.
Trump had good reason to think the Oval Office discussion with Zelinsky would be about the benefits of this deal - next steps towards peace, not whether or not Zelinsky would sign the mineral rights deal, for three reasons:
There were no objections to American mineral rights deal, even among European leaders who had already negotiated terms of their own loan repayment from the Ukranians.
To show good faith, the UK had already agreed to up military spending and guarantee security for Ukraine after a peace deal to set an example for everyone else in Europe. Once Europe is financially committed, the US wouldn’t have an excuse to hold out security, (after all, the mineral rights deal buys US interest with or without a formal guarantee), leaving this issue for another day.
Zelinsky’s cabinet had approved the American deal and expected it to be signed, in anticipation of it being a first step towards peace.
But Zelinsky chose to use Trump’s “live” strategy against him, to capitalize on his own practiced skill presenting his case to Americans in a live forum. Instead, he revealed the cracks weakening his leadership, just as was revealed “live” at the 1987 Chautauqua Conference, when I saw the old guard military Soviet officials, with arms across their chests, dismissing the younger, non-military Soviet officials who attended the conference because they saw the hope of re-defining our relationship.
In 1987, the “old guard” military Soviet leaders were angry at the US for changing the game. Just four years earlier, during Reagan’s first administration, he announced a new defense program, the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), which quickly became nicknamed-named “Star Wars” (after the 1977 film). The idea was to defend against nuclear attack, by destroying the missile from space, essentially protecting the US from attack without having to respond by releasing a nuke targeting the Soviet Union or any other aggressor (with this preemptive capability, wonder if nuclear capability in third world countries would still be an issue - Musk, make this happen before Mars!).
Apparently, this inspired younger Soviets to see hope in a post-Cold War capitalist alternative, already teased by, for example, PEPSICO’s unique barter deal, trading brands like Pizza Hut entering the Soviet Union in exchange for Stolichnoya to distribute in the US. (When I spoke to Soviet citizens staying with families on Chautauqua’s grounds, they told me that, until Pizza Hut, they thought pizza was a big flat cracker with American-style ketchup for sauce and sliced hot dogs (yuck!). Oh, and they had never tasted Stoli until we offered it because at home all they could afford was the equivalent of “moonshine”).
While watching Zelinsky in the Oval Office, nearly 40 years later, I was reminded of all of this. Just as those military Soviet leaders had revealed their hubris and lost trust and respect, Zelinsky crossed his arms across his chest, refusing to accept a mineral deal without American security guarantees. Then I saw this widely shared image, revealing he had dashed Ukranians’ hope in the first step to re-defining their relationships with Putin, Europe, and America.
